Convective Outlooks SPC issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks that depict non-severe thunderstorm areas and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States, along with a text narrative. The categorical forecast specifies the level of the overall severe weather threat via numbers (e.g., 5), descriptive labeling (e.g., HIGH), and colors (e.g., magenta). The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a severe weather event occurring within 25 miles of a point. The text narrative begins with a listing of severe thunderstorm risk areas by state and/or geographic region. This is followed by a concise, plain-language summary of the type(s) of threat along with timing that is

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Convective Outlooks SPC issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks that depict non-severe thunderstorm areas and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States, along with a text narrative. The categorical forecast specifies the level of the overall severe weather threat via numbers (e.g., 5), descriptive labeling (e.g., HIGH), and colors (e.g., magenta). The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a severe weather event occurring within 25 miles of a point. The text narrative begins with a listing of severe thunderstorm risk areas by state and/or geographic region. This is followed by a concise, plain-language summary of the type(s) of threat along with timing that is

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The National Weather Service: Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued their Day 2 convective weather outlook. Mid Western PA and most of Central PA will be in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. Even though the words slight do not seem like much, SLIGHT can bring hail over 1-inch in size, winds above 65 MPH, and tornado spin up between EF0-EF2 (Possibly EF3 if conditions are right). Always be weather alert during times like this. May has brought havoc to the Pennsylvania region, for example, May 31st, 1985 was the worst tornado outbreak this state has seen. Dr. Greg Forbes with The Weather Channel, has issued TORCON indexes of

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The National Weather Service: Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued their Day 2 convective weather outlook. Mid Western PA and most of Central PA will be in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. Even though the words slight do not seem like much, SLIGHT can bring hail over 1-inch in size, winds above 65 MPH, and tornado spin up between EF0-EF2 (Possibly EF3 if conditions are right). Always be weather alert during times like this. May has brought havoc to the Pennsylvania region, for example, May 31st, 1985 was the worst tornado outbreak this state has seen. Dr. Greg Forbes with The Weather Channel, has issued TORCON indexes of

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Pennsylvania won’t see much in the way of any severe storms (most areas may see a low severe system). Thunder and rain MAY occur in some areas, but I wouldn’t expect anything severe. The outflow boundary has stalled across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through southern Missouri, but continues to advance eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, where mostly low severe weather probabilities are being maintained. Lingering severe weather potential is probably maximized near the intersection of the outflow and a stalled frontal zone (roughly along the I-70 corridor of Indiana), but seems likely to diminish by late evening in the presence of weak/weakening instability.

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Pennsylvania won’t see much in the way of any severe storms (most areas may see a low severe system). Thunder and rain MAY occur in some areas, but I wouldn’t expect anything severe. The outflow boundary has stalled across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through southern Missouri, but continues to advance eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, where mostly low severe weather probabilities are being maintained. Lingering severe weather potential is probably maximized near the intersection of the outflow and a stalled frontal zone (roughly along the I-70 corridor of Indiana), but seems likely to diminish by late evening in the presence of weak/weakening instability.

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Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of south central Texas northeastward to portions of the Ohio Valley/northern Middle Atlantic region Saturday into Saturday night. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC… (Valid April 29-30) This system is forecast to shift into the southern High Plains region by the end of the day 1 period as strongest mid-level flow finally rotates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. Given this scenario, strongest mid-level height falls will not spread into west TX until late afternoon. As a result, large-scale

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Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of south central Texas northeastward to portions of the Ohio Valley/northern Middle Atlantic region Saturday into Saturday night. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC… (Valid April 29-30) This system is forecast to shift into the southern High Plains region by the end of the day 1 period as strongest mid-level flow finally rotates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. Given this scenario, strongest mid-level height falls will not spread into west TX until late afternoon. As a result, large-scale

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In the Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania, there is a chance for some rumbles of thunder and rain this evening into early morning on April 29,2017. An updated article will be written if anything changes. Keep up to date with the radar and forecasts in the meantime. However, most of the severe weather remains in the southern and western areas as talked about below. (Current radar loop) A relatively subtle mid-level impulse over the Ozarks this morning will largely parallel the OH River as it continues east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours. This impulse will be on the northern periphery of considerably rising upper heights and gradually warming mid-level temperatures.

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In the Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania, there is a chance for some rumbles of thunder and rain this evening into early morning on April 29,2017. An updated article will be written if anything changes. Keep up to date with the radar and forecasts in the meantime. However, most of the severe weather remains in the southern and western areas as talked about below. (Current radar loop) A relatively subtle mid-level impulse over the Ozarks this morning will largely parallel the OH River as it continues east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours. This impulse will be on the northern periphery of considerably rising upper heights and gradually warming mid-level temperatures.

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It’s finally Friday and the weather is gorgeous. Thursday evening, 4/27/17, a cold front passing through triggered strong storms. I was in position ready for an intercept by 5:00 pm. My target area was northern Butler County. Around 4:00 pm, light rain showers moved through the area. Behind it was a line of storms forming. There was just enough sun to make the atmosphere unstable. Instability is one of the ingredients required for storms to form. There was a nice looking storm cell on radar moving northeast past Youngstown, Ohio. But the one I had my eye on was moving northeast from south eastern Ohio. That storm was severe when it

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It’s finally Friday and the weather is gorgeous. Thursday evening, 4/27/17, a cold front passing through triggered strong storms. I was in position ready for an intercept by 5:00 pm. My target area was northern Butler County. Around 4:00 pm, light rain showers moved through the area. Behind it was a line of storms forming. There was just enough sun to make the atmosphere unstable. Instability is one of the ingredients required for storms to form. There was a nice looking storm cell on radar moving northeast past Youngstown, Ohio. But the one I had my eye on was moving northeast from south eastern Ohio. That storm was severe when it

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Yesterday, I went ona chase like no others during the daylight. We had a storm moving in from Ohio, and I had the perfect vantage point. I was going to be busting through the middle of a 1″ hailcore. This was also my first time chasing in unknown area. As you can see, the storm was growing intensity. Here are a few pictures of the system itself. Unfortunately, the storm decided to head more north than East, so I was back on the move. Weaving in and out of the hills of Ellwood City, I was able to get on top of the mountains and follow it north for a few

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Yesterday, I went ona chase like no others during the daylight. We had a storm moving in from Ohio, and I had the perfect vantage point. I was going to be busting through the middle of a 1″ hailcore. This was also my first time chasing in unknown area. As you can see, the storm was growing intensity. Here are a few pictures of the system itself. Unfortunately, the storm decided to head more north than East, so I was back on the move. Weaving in and out of the hills of Ellwood City, I was able to get on top of the mountains and follow it north for a few

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Posted in Chase Blogs

A suspicious cloud formation develops during a thunderstorm, prompting concerns of an impending twister. But not all funnel-shaped clouds are tornadoes. A keen eye and patience is needed to spot the genuine from the fake. Here in this article, we will explain the difference between a real tornado, and clouds that are often mistaken for a tornado. While many clouds may begin as funnel clouds, they are not the same as a tornado. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending between a convective cloud (like a wall cloud) and the surface of the earth. Rotation is the key property when observing suspicious, tornado

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A suspicious cloud formation develops during a thunderstorm, prompting concerns of an impending twister. But not all funnel-shaped clouds are tornadoes. A keen eye and patience is needed to spot the genuine from the fake. Here in this article, we will explain the difference between a real tornado, and clouds that are often mistaken for a tornado. While many clouds may begin as funnel clouds, they are not the same as a tornado. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending between a convective cloud (like a wall cloud) and the surface of the earth. Rotation is the key property when observing suspicious, tornado

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In wake of the severe weather season, I felt that touching base on thunderstorm and lightning safety would be an important topic to discuss. Most of us know the infamous saying “When thunder roars, go indoors”, but what about the reason behind it? Let’s take a look below. All thunderstorms are dangerous, and all thunderstorms produce lightning to some degree. Over the past thirty years, lightning fatalities have decreased, but lightning continues to be one of the top three storm-related killers in the United States. On average, fifty one people are struck by lightning in the United States alone. So what else comes with a thunderstorm warned system? If you said

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In wake of the severe weather season, I felt that touching base on thunderstorm and lightning safety would be an important topic to discuss. Most of us know the infamous saying “When thunder roars, go indoors”, but what about the reason behind it? Let’s take a look below. All thunderstorms are dangerous, and all thunderstorms produce lightning to some degree. Over the past thirty years, lightning fatalities have decreased, but lightning continues to be one of the top three storm-related killers in the United States. On average, fifty one people are struck by lightning in the United States alone. So what else comes with a thunderstorm warned system? If you said

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Happy Thursday everyone. It feels like a summer morning. High temperature is forecast to be in the low 80’s. Strong storms are in the forecast despite the beautiful morning. According to the Storm Prediction Center, all of western PA is under “marginal” risk for storms. That means isolated severe storms are possible. Storms will fire up along the cold front. Impacts from these storms include damaging winds, large hail, and brief downpours. According to the National Weather Service, timing for these storms are between 2 pm and 10 pm. Don’t let the sunshine fool you. The sun’s rays are heating up the atmosphere which will result in instability. Instability is on

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Happy Thursday everyone. It feels like a summer morning. High temperature is forecast to be in the low 80’s. Strong storms are in the forecast despite the beautiful morning. According to the Storm Prediction Center, all of western PA is under “marginal” risk for storms. That means isolated severe storms are possible. Storms will fire up along the cold front. Impacts from these storms include damaging winds, large hail, and brief downpours. According to the National Weather Service, timing for these storms are between 2 pm and 10 pm. Don’t let the sunshine fool you. The sun’s rays are heating up the atmosphere which will result in instability. Instability is on

Read more

Posted in Uncategorized