A marginal risk has been decreased for much of the state on Monday. The upper trough situated over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest will develop south/southeast on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow across the OH Valley to the mid-Atlantic region. As this occurs, a cold front will drop southward across OH, western PA and western NY through the evening. Severity of these storms may be isolated or non-existent. This is a change from the previous forecast that we shared recently. Damaging winds and severe storms are not likely at this time. Any changes that are made with the forecast, will be updated as they are issued by

Advertisements
close

A marginal risk has been decreased for much of the state on Monday. The upper trough situated over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest will develop south/southeast on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow across the OH Valley to the mid-Atlantic region. As this occurs, a cold front will drop southward across OH, western PA and western NY through the evening. Severity of these storms may be isolated or non-existent. This is a change from the previous forecast that we shared recently. Damaging winds and severe storms are not likely at this time. Any changes that are made with the forecast, will be updated as they are issued by

Advertisements
Read more

Posted in Forecasts

The marginal and slight risk areas have been trimmed further on the east side to remove all of western NY and much of PA. Ongoing rain and cloud cover has prevented stronger heating and destabilization of the boundary layer and hence, any appreciable severe threat. Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible throughout the evening. The risk of damaging storms is relatively low. Forecasts will be updated as they are submitted by the NWS.

close

The marginal and slight risk areas have been trimmed further on the east side to remove all of western NY and much of PA. Ongoing rain and cloud cover has prevented stronger heating and destabilization of the boundary layer and hence, any appreciable severe threat. Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible throughout the evening. The risk of damaging storms is relatively low. Forecasts will be updated as they are submitted by the NWS.

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the marginal risk for today, to a slight risk. This upgrade means that damaging storms are likely. Areas that were placed in a general thunderstorm risk, have now been upgraded to a marginal risk. A small portion of the state remains in a general risk as of right now. In concert with these developments, the surface frontal system accompanying broader mid-level troughing over the Great Lakes area will continue to fracture, with diffuse frontal bands becoming focused west-east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Relevant for severe convective concerns, a corridor of relatively rich moisture will extend eastward from the middle Mississippi Valley

close

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the marginal risk for today, to a slight risk. This upgrade means that damaging storms are likely. Areas that were placed in a general thunderstorm risk, have now been upgraded to a marginal risk. A small portion of the state remains in a general risk as of right now. In concert with these developments, the surface frontal system accompanying broader mid-level troughing over the Great Lakes area will continue to fracture, with diffuse frontal bands becoming focused west-east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Relevant for severe convective concerns, a corridor of relatively rich moisture will extend eastward from the middle Mississippi Valley

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

Storms to linger through Monday, June 5, 2017. Forecast models show organized rotating updrafts but storm type may be mixed mode with clusters/line segments along with a few supercells. This will introduce 5% severe probability for convection along the front, but 15% severe may be needed in later outlooks if adequate buoyancy is present. Hail and wind are the primary risks with this activity. Storms will make their way into the state Sunday evening, and will stick around for the majority of Monday. Sunday’s forecast remains without change, as Monday’s outlook places the majority of the state in a marginal risk. As always, stay weather ready in case of any severe weather.

close

Storms to linger through Monday, June 5, 2017. Forecast models show organized rotating updrafts but storm type may be mixed mode with clusters/line segments along with a few supercells. This will introduce 5% severe probability for convection along the front, but 15% severe may be needed in later outlooks if adequate buoyancy is present. Hail and wind are the primary risks with this activity. Storms will make their way into the state Sunday evening, and will stick around for the majority of Monday. Sunday’s forecast remains without change, as Monday’s outlook places the majority of the state in a marginal risk. As always, stay weather ready in case of any severe weather.

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

A slight risk has been issued for portions of Erie and surrounding areas on June 4, 2017. This system should reach the lower great lakes by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with convection that evolves along the cold front. A marginal risk has been issued for a small portion of the state, while the rest has been placed in a general thunderstorm risk. As with a slight risk, severe storms are likely in the marginal areas, but may not be as severe as those areas that have been placed in the slight risk areas. Stay weather ready and up to date in case any warnings or watches

close

A slight risk has been issued for portions of Erie and surrounding areas on June 4, 2017. This system should reach the lower great lakes by evening. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with convection that evolves along the cold front. A marginal risk has been issued for a small portion of the state, while the rest has been placed in a general thunderstorm risk. As with a slight risk, severe storms are likely in the marginal areas, but may not be as severe as those areas that have been placed in the slight risk areas. Stay weather ready and up to date in case any warnings or watches

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

Locally strong thunderstorms will once again take aim at the northeastern United States later today. The same storm responsible for Tuesday’s thunderstorms will bring a renewed threat of locally violent thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. While the above areas are at greatest risk, it is not out of the question for an isolated strong thunderstorm to rattle other parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic into the evening. More of the thunderstorms will disrupt outdoor plans and create slower travel. Remember that as soon as thunder is heard, the risk of being struck by lightning is present. The risk of strong thunderstorms will finally wane on Thursday as drier and less

close

Locally strong thunderstorms will once again take aim at the northeastern United States later today. The same storm responsible for Tuesday’s thunderstorms will bring a renewed threat of locally violent thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. While the above areas are at greatest risk, it is not out of the question for an isolated strong thunderstorm to rattle other parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic into the evening. More of the thunderstorms will disrupt outdoor plans and create slower travel. Remember that as soon as thunder is heard, the risk of being struck by lightning is present. The risk of strong thunderstorms will finally wane on Thursday as drier and less

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail & perhaps a tornado will be possible this afternoon. Greatest risk area includes locations between US-219 & I-81. Be Weather-Ready. Plan ahead if you have an outdoor event. Know how you will receive a warning if one is issued. Central Pa has been placed in a slight risk, while other parts of the state have been placed in a marginal and a general thunderstorm risk. If you have any outdoor activities planned, be sure to keep up to date with any watches, earnings, or advisories that may be issued.

close

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail & perhaps a tornado will be possible this afternoon. Greatest risk area includes locations between US-219 & I-81. Be Weather-Ready. Plan ahead if you have an outdoor event. Know how you will receive a warning if one is issued. Central Pa has been placed in a slight risk, while other parts of the state have been placed in a marginal and a general thunderstorm risk. If you have any outdoor activities planned, be sure to keep up to date with any watches, earnings, or advisories that may be issued.

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

Storms are expected to form by around noon across western PA and NY along the front, and will develop and move relatively slowly northeastward during the afternoon, possibly reaching Vermont by evening. The primary storm mode is expected to be cellular, but small lines may eventually form with outflow mergers. Hail is expected to be a main threat, with strong wind gusts eventually as well. Long hodographs along with weak but veering winds with height in the low levels suggest a few supercells are possible. A Slight risk cannot totally be ruled out in later outlooks, although marginal moisture and instability along with the overall weak surface pattern look to temper

close

Storms are expected to form by around noon across western PA and NY along the front, and will develop and move relatively slowly northeastward during the afternoon, possibly reaching Vermont by evening. The primary storm mode is expected to be cellular, but small lines may eventually form with outflow mergers. Hail is expected to be a main threat, with strong wind gusts eventually as well. Long hodographs along with weak but veering winds with height in the low levels suggest a few supercells are possible. A Slight risk cannot totally be ruled out in later outlooks, although marginal moisture and instability along with the overall weak surface pattern look to temper

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for… Southeastern Ashtabula County in northeastern Ohio… Southwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania… * Until 700 PM EDT * At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have already fallen. Localized flash flooding is likely. * Some locations that will experience flooding include… Meadville, Andover, Linesville, Harmonsburg, Adamsville, Atlantic, Cochranton, Cherry Valley, Conneaut Lake, Jamestown, Blooming Valley, Geneva and Hartstown. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.

close

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for… Southeastern Ashtabula County in northeastern Ohio… Southwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania… * Until 700 PM EDT * At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have already fallen. Localized flash flooding is likely. * Some locations that will experience flooding include… Meadville, Andover, Linesville, Harmonsburg, Adamsville, Atlantic, Cochranton, Cherry Valley, Conneaut Lake, Jamestown, Blooming Valley, Geneva and Hartstown. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.

Read more

Posted in Forecasts

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN VENANGO COUNTIES… At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sugarcreek, or near Franklin, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and half dollar-size hail. SOURCE…Radar. IMPACT…Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. Locations impacted include… Franklin… Sugarcreek… Polk… Cooperstown… Utica… PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

close

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN VENANGO COUNTIES… At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sugarcreek, or near Franklin, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and half dollar-size hail. SOURCE…Radar. IMPACT…Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. Locations impacted include… Franklin… Sugarcreek… Polk… Cooperstown… Utica… PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

Read more

Posted in Forecasts