Risk of flooding for the Florida Peninsula rises, as a budding tropical storm forms.

While sticky, tropical air lingers over much of the Florida Peninsula, an area of disturbed weather bears watching over the next few days. Following Irma’s devastation, Maria spared Florida by turning northward, well east of the peninsula.

Steering winds are likely to guide this disturbance northward or northeastward, close to or over the Florida Peninsula this weekend. There is a chance this system may become a tropical depression or storm, but rapid development to a hurricane is unlikely through this weekend. As the disturbance drifts to the north and northeast, showers and thunderstorms will be enhanced from south to north throughout the Florida Peninsula this weekend.

On one hand, the system may be steered at a quick pace to the northeast and out to sea over the Atlantic. Another possibility turns the disturbance westward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Because of the uncertainty of the track and the potential for better organization, the disturbance should be watched closely into next week.

Even if the disturbance near Florida fails to develop, additional threats may arise nearby in the coming weeks. We will continue to monitor and share any updates that may develop.

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