Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

Information was taken from WeatherUnderground: Even as Tropical Storm Irma continues to wallop parts of the Southeast U.S, the region will also need to keep an eye on Hurricane Jose over the next few days. Hurricane Jose is now wandering several hundred miles to the north of the Leeward Islands, after brushing them on Saturday as a high-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Jose will spend the next four days performing a slow clockwise loop without affecting any land areas. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and then north of Jose between days 3 and 4. When Jose completes this loop late this week, it will be close to the north-central Bahamas, which are now in the NHC 5-day cone of uncertainty. The hurricane could threaten the U.S. and Canada next week.


(GFS ensemble model)

The looping path Jose is expected to take this week is the sort of behavior that our computer models don’t predict with a high degree of accuracy, and the 5-day error in the latest track forecast is likely to be higher than average. While the 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and European model (and their ensembles) showed only a limited threat to the U.S. next week, the runs 12 hours previous to that showed a considerable threat. Until Jose is further along on its loop, the models are likely to have large errors, and we should not take too much comfort (or indulge in too much angst) over a particular set of model runs. The potential for a dangerous storm affecting The Bahamas late this week and/or the U.S. early next week is there, as shown by the 0Z Monday run of the UKMET model, which predicted that Jose would hit the eastern Bahamas on Friday, and move west-northwest through The Bahamas towards Florida over the weekend. The 6Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that Jose would bring tropical storm-force winds to the north-central Bahamas on Friday, and the 6Z Monday run of the GFS model predicted a landfall along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. As Jose approaches the U.S. this weekend, it is uncertain if the hurricane will experience a steering influence from the remnants of Hurricane Irma, which may still be lingering over the Eastern U.S., and it’s too soon to know what other features will be in play to help shape Jose’s course over the 6- to 10-day period. It is certainly possible that Jose will recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas.


(European model)

There has been so much controversy in regards to Hurricane Jose hitting the East Coast, that we have decided to take the information right out of the meteorologist’s mouths, so to speak. All updated will continue to be taken by the NHC and other legitimate sources as they come in. If you still do not believe us, we even included the direct link for you https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-potential-east-coast-threat.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply