Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this region in patchwork fashion, along and ahead of the surface cold front today into this evening. Activity will offer mainly damaging wind, with isolated severe hail also possible. The risk area remains rather broad-brushed and generalized at this time due to the messy,
nuanced character and mesoscale dependence of potential convective foci.
(blue area shows a 40% chance of thunderstorms for today)
On Monday, Isolated strong/severe storms may occur over portions of the northern Plains vicinity, as well as across parts of the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region. Strong storms may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the southern New England vicinity, shifting eastward/offshore through the morning. Meanwhile farther west into the central Appalachians, cooling aloft associated with advance of the upper trough atop some low-level heating will support pockets of modest CAPE across portions of the PA/NY vicinity. This should support isolated to scattered afternoon storm development, with a few stronger cells likely to evolve given amply strong flow aloft.