Isolated storms to continue to move across the mid-Atlantic on Friday.

A few areas of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within zone of warm advection and isentropic ascent north of the warm front from parts of the Dakotas into the upper MS and OH Valley regions. This activity will be elevated above a stable surface layer, but could pose at least a marginal risk for hail as it shifts eastward. The moist warm sector in vicinity of the warm front will destabilize during the day with moderate to strong instability possible during the afternoon. A capping inversion associated with eastern extension of the elevated mixed layer may limit more robust initiation over western portion of region until mid-late afternoon when additional storms may develop
over eastern SD near triple point supported by a destabilizing boundary layer and a progressive shortwave trough. Activity should expand eastward into southern MN along nose of southwesterly low level jet, possibly consolidating into a forward propagating MCS that will continue southeastward along instability gradient through the upper Midwest region. Should this scenario transpire, a corridor of higher concentration of damaging wind would be likely. Given lingering uncertainty in how the mesoscale will evolve, will maintain 15% category at this time, but a enhanced might be introduced in later outlooks.


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