A few severe thunderstorms are possible from the middle Mississippi Valley northeastward toward lake Erie, across the northern Rockies and High Plains, and over southern Arizona. Scattered weaker storms will occur during the afternoon across much of the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms are not likely to occur from Jul 16-17 across the state. Isolated storms will mainly be pop-ups and pose no threat for wind related damage. The severity remains below five percent as of right now.
Storm activity along a cold front should increase throughout the day as heating commences, resulting in moderate instability from MO into southern Lower MI. A belt of 30-35 kt northerly mid-level low will exist across WI into IL and IN, and will lengthen hodographs and support a few longer-lived cells capable of severe hail and isolated strong wind gusts. Isolated strong storms may extend across northern OH into Lower MI, but the greatest threat is expected over western areas during the late afternoon.
Current model shows marginal threats remain the the west and the northern most tip of Pennsylvania, while a general isolated storm risk remains for much of the state, except the southeastern most part of the state. Updates will be made as necessary.