Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of south central Texas northeastward to portions of the Ohio Valley/northern Middle Atlantic region Saturday into Saturday night. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC…
(Valid April 29-30)
This system is forecast to shift into the southern High Plains region by the end of the day 1 period as strongest mid-level flow finally rotates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. Given this scenario, strongest mid-level height falls will not spread into west TX until late afternoon. As a result, large-scale forcing, for ascent, will be negligible across much of the warm sector through the period. It appears widespread convection will concentrate along a stationary frontal zone oriented from eastern OK into the OH valley and along the cold front as it surges eastward across OK/TX then into the lower MS Valley Saturday night. Warm advection should maintain this zone of convection through sunrise Saturday morning. Hail may be the greatest severe risk with this activity, though very heavy rain may ultimately become an issue along this front.