In the Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania, there is a chance for some rumbles of thunder and rain this evening into early morning on April 29,2017. An updated article will be written if anything changes. Keep up to date with the radar and forecasts in the meantime. However, most of the severe weather remains in the southern and western areas as talked about below.
(Current radar loop)
A relatively subtle mid-level impulse over the Ozarks this morning will largely parallel the OH River as it continues east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours. This impulse will be on the northern periphery of considerably rising upper heights and gradually warming mid-level temperatures. A very moist air mass (characterized by 70+ F surface dew points) along the Gulf Coast early this morning will steadily develop northward in tandem with a northward-moving warm front, which will increasingly become established into the TN Valley and parts of the OH Valley by mid/late afternoon and evening. While relatively weak forcing across the warm sector casts considerable uncertainty, there is at least some potential for increasingly moist/low-level confluence and weakening warm-sector inhibition to contribute in at least isolated or widely scattered development this afternoon within a corridor including far northern MS into western/northern TN and KY. If/where storms form, ample combinations of buoyancy and vertical shear would support both discrete super cells and upscale-growing bows capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Farther north, other severe thunderstorms are likely to intensify through the afternoon/early evening across the OH valley along and just north of the northward-shifting front.
Outlook for 2 am, April 29, 2017.
Outlook for 5 am, April 29, 2017.